Is President Xi Jinping preparing China for a war?

Kathmandu: Is President Xi Jinping preparing China for a war? Maybe. There are a few reasons for this speculation.

First-China has increased the defense budget by 7.2 percent in the running fiscal year. Experts in military affairs said that this increment has doubled the defense budget more than that of the previous decade. What is the importance of such a big increment in the defense budget if no war is in the pipeline?

Second- In the voting concerning the Ukraine war in the United Nations, China had stayed neutral. But, it kept on strengthening the relationship with Russia. Xi commented that the friendship with Russia is long-term with unlimited coordination, after completing the three days Russia tour.

Both China and Russia have anti-western sentiments instead of being permanent members of the United Nations with veto power. If China is not preparing for war, why did it agree to be the partner in the Russia-led destructive Ukraine war?

Third-China has disagreed to accept the recognized liberal democracy in the contemporary world. China believes that its one-party communist system is in itself an original methodology of democracy.

Democracy has its own special features. China believes in its democratic principles and methodology. The ambition of the nation is to build a China-based new world order by stepping on the same basic principle.

Xi recently delivered a speech at the meeting of the Chinese Communist Party and Chinese People’s Congress in March. Xi, in the speech, emphasized being courageous if a war needed to be fought. Such statements are not enough to conclude that China is ready for an immediate war. But it clearly signals the war mentality of China, which cannot be omitted.

There is no specific answer to how the consequences invited by the so-called ‘second cold war’ (China-America conflict) and the polarization of Russia-China against Western Powers will end.

The dissolution of the Soviet Union and the collapse of one-party communist regimes in Eastern and Central had ended the first cold war. This was a sudden incident rather than an expected one.  It is quite difficult to speculate on the ending of the so-called second cold war.

It is not the appropriate time to blindly believe the ambition of China of building a world order that will replace the western world order based on liberal democracy.

Likewise, a document, titled ‘Empowerment of the People’s Liberation Army under the guidance of Xi Jinping’s ideology’, was presented at the meeting of the Chinese Communist Party. The name of the document clearly indicates that President Xi wants to connect the military power of Greater China with his relevance of political ideologies.

The ongoing construction of the Air Bus in the coastal area of the Southern part of China, as well as the new military agreement between the America-Philippines, seems to balance the current situation of China and America.

Previously, the Philippines became the base camp for US military forces during the reign of former Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos in the 1970s. Marcos Junior, the son of Ferdinand Marcos, is the President of the Philippines at the present time. And he is restoring the base camps.

On the other hand, the Taiwan conflict is not a new issue. The issue has been extending ever since the Communist Revolution in China in 1949. But the ideologies of Xi has been focusing on is the ‘One-China’ principle. The main objective of the principle is to add Taiwan to the geography of China.

Xi has started applying Hong Kong’s guaranteeing autonomy principle ‘One country, Two nations.’ China has coercively suppressed the possible ‘The Umbrella Rebellion’,  that took place against the principle in Hong Kong.

Similarly, there is a provision that one cannot be appointed as president more than two times in the Chinese Constitution. But President Xi has been trying to amend the provision for his third reigning.

What might be the reason behind amending the provision and becoming president for the third time? What task is still to be completed in the reign of Xi?

According to analysts, the only task to be completed is to unify Taiwan with the geography of China. There are no other tasks that cannot be completed after the completion of Xi’s presidential tenure.

This might be the reason behind China’s support in the Ukraine war. A new example will be set in the contemporary world if Russia succeeds in adding Ukraine to its territory. This will open a new door for China to add Taiwan to its territory.

China takes Taiwan as its integral part just like Russia takes Ukraine as a ‘fake nation.’ The defeat of Taiwan is not a challenge for China but the post-attack phase of the world is. For example, Russia claimed to defeat Ukraine in the interval of 3 months. But, even after one year, the war has not ended.

Additionally, Xi had already announced the desire to include Taiwan in the territory of China. The assumption that China is secretly preparing for the war might not be totally wrong if Xi’s speech is taken into reference.

But, President Xi is alert about not repeating the mistakes made by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Xi is focusing on ensuring a sure-shot victory. He wants to make sure that the war does not stretch longer before attacking Taiwan.

According to local notices, China opened special military offices in various cities last December. These offices will coordinate to conduct three operations.

One-Military recruitment, Two- maintaining public relations between local and the military, as well as Third-Operating Emergency Hospitals. Usually, such operations are carried out during war with other countries. The regular military offices don’t conduct such operations in a normal situations.

Such strategies are applied while recruiting a large number of soldiers during the time of war.

Xi clarified such operations in his speech on March 6. He said, ‘The assurance of victory in possible war depends upon the continued support of the masses toward the plans of the state.’ World political conflicts seem mandatory to be moving towards a drastic explosive corner while observing China’s preparation for the war.

Xi even added that they need to understand and accept there might be a situation of not getting any international market for a certain time period in case of the beginning of the war. He suggested strengthening the internal economy to such an extent that the broken connection with the international market won’t create a huge loss.

The events have signaled homework of Xi for the upcoming war but analysts are not able to conclude whether the preparation is part of an approaching action oriented or a sustainable strategy.

May be- President Xi is not in a favor of entering the battlefield immediately but wants to create fear in the opposing force. But is the unification of Taiwan with China possible with such a strategy? If the answer is No, what will be the consequences of Xi’s ideology ‘One China: One Country’ policy?